May 2022 Profit/Loss Review

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +53.26 UNITS

£1 Per Unit = £53.26

£10 Per Unit = £532.60

£25 Per Unit = £1,332

£100 Per Unit = £5,326

After a +69u April, we secure another strong month, however, dampened by an anti-climatic final 10 days. During the first half of May, we took advantage of the closing matchdays of the European major leagues with external pressure playing a big part in the approach of many teams as they fought for Promotion, European Places & Safety. We pinpointed many high-chance scenarios & cashed in, Registering 7 successive BOTD Winners as well as 7 consecutive InPlay winners, seeing profits sore upwards of 70 Units. With the major leagues coming to a close, this opened the door for the Scandinavian leagues to commence, a region that offers a much different approach to football but one that has provided high returns for us over the years. We couldn't have asked for a better start to their new season, hitting a full house (10/1, 9/5, 11/10, 10/11, 10/11) on the day of the Norwegian Cup 1st round. Since then, the BOTD has continued to perform but Pre Match extras & InPlays have taken a disappointing turn. We've had some seriously unfortunate losses but overall not a good end to the month in these categories. Despite this, there are positives to take from our month-end which I've noted in my conclusion below along with what's to come for the next few months. 

 BREAKDOWN:

BET OF THE DAY: +65.01 Units

The month of May brought us 19 BOTD Winners from 28 posted, at average odds of 1.95 (20/21). The BOTD usually boasts our largest stake of the day & continues to be our most reliable and consistent bet. A strong start to the month saw us hit a 3-win streak followed by a 7-win streak, before a fluctuation of Profits during mid-may & another 3 win-streak before the month-end. Business as usual for our forte. Our largest loss streak was just 2 in a row, which we hit on one occasion. 

PRE MATCH EXTRAS: +3.00 Units

Pre-match extras are all the additional pre-match bets excluding the small stake longshots (See below). They include Super Singles, Bet Builders, Team doubles/Trebles, Goals Doubles/Trebles, 4-Fold's etc. As you can see by the graph trajectory we were on course for a great return here before a rapid decrease before the month-end. Unfortunate for many I must say, a few examples; Liverpool underachieving their corner average as they chased the title on the final day, preventing an 11.5u swing. 1 goal short of our goals double on the 26th May where we had a matchup between two positive playing Norwegian div 3 sides, both boasting 4+ MG averages & not seeing a goal for the final 44 minutes, preventing a +10.05u swing & finally a recognized Norwegian outfit in the form of IK Start failing to score for just the 2nd time this season in a match-up against one of the leagues highest XG Conceding teams, preventing a +7.23u swing. I could go on & if you had watched the games with me, I'm sure you would agree that the intent and potential was there for our desired markets, we just didn't get the rub of the green on some. Personally, I don't mind that. It's when match-ups go totally against expectations that I question my methods and research. Overall, many of the pre-match losses were good bets on review of the chances missed and the tactical intent shown. One bet that I did put down as a bad bet was the 4-Fold on the 27th May & in hindsight, I should never have posted directly from my InPlay shortlist. On this occasion, I wanted to post pre-match content for members on a day where we opted for no BOTD. Lesson Learnt. Super Singles & Bet Builders were a success (Additional graphs for both Below) however the extra pre-match doubles/trebles ultimately brought down the overall return and played the biggest part in the negative finish to the month. 

SUPER SINGLE (PRE MATCH EXTRAS): +22.55 Units

Super Singles are high-value singles, usually posted on days that possess a strong fixture list. 9 Super Singles were posted this month at average odds of 2.26 (5/4). We hit 6 consecutive Super Singles in a row, with a total of 7 winners overall. The pick of the bunch has to be our Bristol Rovers Prediction, where we took advantage of their final day thrashing @ 2.50 (6/4) & 2.00 (1/1). Followed by Liverpool to win & btts @ 2.70 (17/10) a close second with Breidablik to win & btts @ 2.50 (6/4) another great pick.

BET BUILDERS (PRE MATCH EXTRAS): +7.94 Units

A good month for Bet Builders with 4 winners from 7 posted at average odds of 2.46 (6/4). The pick of the bunch from the final day of the premier league season (Brentford v Leeds), a tip that was posted with research attached and a prediction we nailed to a tee, successfully predicting Kalvin Philips to professional foul during a Brentford counter-attack and Leeds to score in the 2nd half, one straight from the crystal ball. An unbelievably unfortunate loser came in the form of our Champions League Final shot treble, where we looked on course for a +10.68 unit swing - predicting a Trent shot (3) & a Vinicius Shot (Goal) only to be let down by a Benzema shot after multiple openings for him and his goal questionably ruled out. This is just the 2nd time all season he failed to take a shot & a scenario priced at 1/16 pre-match. A bad beat. 

LONGSHOTS: +5.50 Units

Small stakes, high returns. 9 Longshots were posted in May, usually a combination of all the pre-match tips for that day. We cashed in on 2 of them at 10/1 odds & 13/5. They're longshots for a reason & a positive return is always welcome from these. Again, agonisingly close on a couple of occasions; 1 Goal from landing the 14/1 8-fold on the 14th may, this would have provided an additional +15.25 Units & we ended a goal short a week after for a +7.70u swing. Profit is profit but oh what could have been. 

INPLAYS: -21.29 Units

Now, I haven't had time to input all of this month's InPlays into a graph but the P/L is correct and the graph would have looked something like this. A fantastic start followed by an underwhelming finish. I posted around 65-80 InPlays over the course of the month and on review, I have to hold my hands up and admit that was too much too soon. We've tried to attack the start of the Scandinavian season whilst building portfolios of each team in the process when really we should have slowed things down before we knew how each team would react in certain situations. On-Field many triggers and pointers would tick all the boxes but on too many occasions we've seen a lack of match sharpness in front of goal, controlled finishes to games, and variables going against us. Members have seen clips of some of the incredible chances missed and as much as we can blame the players on the pitch, I too must take some accountability here. I touch on this below in my conclusion of the month.

NBA: +1.04 Units

Not a great deal of NBA Action for us this month. I simply did not have the time to explore the NBA as much as I'd have liked to, with the end of the major leagues and the Scandinavian leagues beginning, the focus was elsewhere. Nevertheless, small profit in the bag, and this should have read +11.24u but for Jaylen Brown having a horror night of shooting on the 23rd of May. We successfully identified his possession usage & the opportunities he would get in this game, shooting a total of 20 shots (the most he'd put up in his last 30) but only converting 25% of them, his lowest field goal percentage in 37 games. You Couldn't write it, but we take the positives & we move. NBA Finals coming up in June, something to look forward to. I'll be keeping a close eye.

CONCLUSION:

The BOTD and SUPER SINGLES are the major players for May 2022 bringing home a combined 85.8% of profits. Another successful month banked. Hours upon hours of research, live video analysis, 1 on 1 support for members, statistical breakdowns, shortlisting,  calculating, Team Tracking, Contact building, decision making, Stream Scheduling, P/L Tracking... The list goes on but I can't help but feel this one got away from us. 

This was a great month and we'd take these results every month if we had the choice, of course, we would. Although this could have been an exceptional month. There have been some extremely fine margins but it's easy to blame them when we're working so hard to be on the right side of them. Why did we hit a negative trajectory on the 21st of May?  I may have identified a couple of reasons.

Personally, I think we went too hard too soon on the Scandinavian football InPlays, I'm in the process of building portfolios & Team Tracking for each team behind the scenes, from the top divisions right down to Norway Division 3. I'm taking notes of how teams play, and the systems they implement, are they pressing high or do they regroup in transition? Do they contain and counter or are they positive playing? How do they react when ahead, formation changes, etc. The same applies to when they concede, the risk they take when chasing a game, and the bodies they throw forward. How vulnerable are they to conceding again, where is the betting opportunity within these scenarios? This is the true aim of this game. Stats do not lie but they certainly don't tell the full story. We have to identify these scenarios at source and pinpoint the likely outcomes. Pre-match this has worked a treat for us & I am positive this will soon mirror InPlay as well. However, with the Scandinavian season still very fresh & the tracking/Portfolios essentially starting from scratch maybe I was juggling a little too much at once during the last week or so. After all, excessive focus can exhaust your brain & clarity of mind, which is essential in this game. Over the next days & weeks, with the international break upon us, I'm going to prioritise organization and acquire fixture lists days ahead of schedule, finalising tips days in advance before odds are announced, allowing me to have a greater understanding when the markets are released. This should help slow things down & produce a more relaxed environment behind the scenes, ultimately freeing up time for further analysis, 1-on-1 support, and Personal Development. 

On a more personal note, another factor that may have played a part in an Exceptional month subsiding into a 'great' month could be down to a transition behind the scenes. Over the last 2 weeks, I've moved premises, looking to improve the logistics here at Upper 90 Tips. More Screens, more workspace, more tools, more opportunities for us all to capitalize. As you can probably tell by now It's been a BUSY month and I like to think this transition hasn't affected results in the process but who knows. Thankfully I'm settled in now & ready to attack June 2022 and continue our long-term success.

It's us vs the bookies & we're winning.

Current Focus:

Norway (Eliteserien, Obos-Ligaen, Division 2, Division 3, U19 Elite League) Leagues end 13/11/22

Iceland (Premier League 2, Deild, 3 Deild, 4 Deild, U19 League) Leagues end 17/09/22

Finland (Kolmonen) Leagues end 29/10/22

Sweden (1. Division, 2. Division) Leagues end 06/11/22

Faroe Islands (Premier League, Div 1) Leagues end 21/10/22

Estonia (Meistriliiga, Esiliiga A, Esiliiga B, U19 League) Leagues end 13/11/22