Match Preview - Tottenham v Manchester City

The Premier League is back with a bang this weekend, and Saturday night’s showing comes from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Old rivalries are sure to be re-ignited as Jose Mourinho’s Spurs host Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, looking to go top for the night, before Liverpool and Leicester play on Sunday. Meanwhile, City sit 6 points behind the table-topping Foxes in 10th and will be hoping to continue their steady ascent up the table, should they take all 3 points back up north.

No one has faced Mourinho more than Guardiola, with the Spaniard winning 11 of their 23 matches — with draws and Mourinho wins at 6-a-piece. The two footballing revolutionaries have produced some memorable fixtures throughout the continent — not least Barcelona’s historical 5–0 win against Real Madrid at the Nou Camp back in 2010, or Jose’s party-pooping 3–2 comeback at the Etihad in 2018, which delayed, but ultimately didn’t deny Guardiola’s 1st title with City.

It’s Spurs, however, that go into Saturday’s fixture in red-hot form. The north London side are unbeaten in the league since their opening day defeat at home to Everton, winning 5 of their subsequent 7 fixtures, and scoring 19 goals in the process. City, whilst unbeaten in their last 5 Premier League games, are yet to hit the high standards they have set themselves since Guardiola’s arrival, drawing 3 of their opening fixtures, and struggling to create the glut of chances we are used to enjoying.

For the first time since the 2016/2017 season, the two clubs go head to head, both as seemingly genuine title contenders, with just 1 defeat a piece and the joint best defences in the league. Granted, it’s too early in the season to label this as anything close to a ‘decider’ or a ‘6-pointer’, but it could be a huge momentum builder for either side. It’s looking like it could be a dramatic and entertaining battle, on the pitch and in the technical areas.

Team News

A new and common selection headache made took it’s toll on Jose Mourinho this week, as Republic of Ireland full-back Matt Doherty returned a positive test for COVID-19 on Monday. The 28-year old played twice for his country against England and Wales during the break, but will now be self-isolating and unavailable for Saturday’s clash.

Argentinian attacker Erik Lamela was absent for Spurs pre-break win at West Brom, due to a foot problem. The international break arrived conveniently for the winger, allowing him time to recover without missing any football. Saturday’s game against City, however, looks to be just to soon for Lamela, who is likely to be watching from the stands.

Mourinho also revealed in Friday’s press conference that central midfielder Harry Winks returned from international duty with a “little problem”, but failed to go any further on the matter.

The sporadically utilised pairing of Gareth Bale and Giovani Lo Celso are both available for selection following productive game time for their respecitve countries. Bale was subbed off in the 78th minute against West Brom and was spotted with an ice-pack on his left ankle, but the Welshman sat out the friendly with the USA, and played the full 90 minutes against the Republic of Ireland, much to Spurs fans relief. Lo Celso has struggled to make an impact during the early weeks of the season, but two substitute appearances in Spur’s recent games, followed by impressive performances for Argentina during the break will have done his chances of breaking into the side no harm.

City could be handed a huge boost for Saturday’s game, as record goalscorer and key talisman Sergio Aguero is due to be assessed closer to kick-off, and potentially ready for selection. Guardiola will understandably be cautious with regards to Aguero’s fitness, and knows all too well the consequences of an early return to play, especially with someone so seemingly injury prone as the Argentine. The likelihood is that Gabriel Jesus will start and Aguero may make the bench.

Another late fitness test will take place for England winger Raheem Sterling, Guardiola confirmed. Sterling withdrew from the England squad during the international break with a minor calf problem, but Mourinho was adamant in his pre-match presser that the former Liverpool man will be fit to start. It’s Guardiola, however, who will make the late call.

Summer signing Nathan Ake also returned from international duty with a minor injury, this time with his hamstring. He is expected to be sidelined for Saturday’s match despite the injury not being as serious as first thought.

Ake will be joining Brazilian general Fernandinho and French full-back Benjamin Mendy on the sidelines, as they both continue to recover from more long term injuries and are expected to be back in the foreseeable future.

City are starting to find some regularity in their back line, with Aymeric Laporte and Ruben Dias forming a solid pairing inbetween Kyle Walker on the left and Joao Cancelo on the right, both who have been very impressive in early fixtures. Ferran Torres made a great claim for a starting place in the break, bagging a hat-trick in Spains astounding 6–0 victory over Germany.

Phil Foden will also be hoping to use impressive international displays as a stepping stone for more first team football with city. City seem short of the very creativity and flair that the City youngster possesses in bucketload, and Foden’s performances both off the bench for City, and for England must surely be cause for consideration for Guardiola.

Tactical Preview

As previously mentioned, Spurs and City go into this weeks football with the two most formidable defences in the league, With just 1 loss each, and the least goals conceded — albeit joint with Leicester, Aston Villa and Wolves on 9. It’s Spurs however, and somewhat uncharacteristically for a Mourinho-Guardiola comparison, that are firing on all cylinders up-top, with Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son quickly becoming one of the deadliest duos to ever grace the Premier League.

The north London Side are currently bagging an average of 2.37 goals per 90 minutes from an xG of 1.87 per 90 — the second highest in the league behind Liverpool. They are also joint top of the table with London rivals Chelsea in terms of shots on target per 90 mins, with an average of 5.63.

The most promising metric, comes in the form of expected goals difference per 90 minutes (xGD/90), which is essentially the difference between the amount of goals they are expected to score and concede per game. Spurs sit second, again behind Liverpool with an xGD/90 of +0.77 — 6 places ahead of this weekend opponents City with an xGD/90 of just +0.21.

Mourinho’s approach to Saturday will likely be typical of what we are more used to seeing from the Portuguese coach, and his Spurs side have moulded into an almost perfect Mourinho big-game side. Spurs’ central quintet of Eric Dier, Toby Alderweireld, Pierre Hojbjerg, Moussa Sissoko and Tanguy Ndombele provide the central strength necessary to nullify the likes of Aguero, De Bruyne and Foden.

Spurs will look to suffocate City’s central attacking threat, using Sissoko and Ndombele to cut off passing lanes into the likes of De Bruyne. Should they be bypassed, Hojbjerg will be screening the back 4 and plugging any gaps inbetween the lines. With City’s tendency to drop their striker into a deeper number 10 role — typical of a Guardiola side — focus will be on communication between Dier and Hojbjerg in order to ensure Jesus is picked up.

In possession, Spurs will be hoping to exploit City’s high back line, with Heung-Min Son custom made to run in behind. The South Korean’s partnership with Harry Kane this season has been nothing short of sensational, with the duo set to become the most prolific strike partnership in Premier League history. Kane has once again shown his creative prowess this season, ranking top in the league for assists per 90 (1.01), expected assists per 90 (0.46), goal creating acitons per 90 (1.39), and — significantly for Saturday’s game — through balls (7). Son has shone as the league’s joint top scorer (8), and is also unsurprisingly top for non-penalty goals per 90 (1.13). As a pair, they sit 1st and 2nd for goals and assists combined, with Kane on 15 (7G, 8A) and Son on 10 (8G, 2A). Astonishingly, 23% of Kane’s passes to Son this season have been assists.

Whereas Spurs are creating more chances and scoring more goals than almost anyone, City are uncharacteristically struggling to find their firing power up-top. Admittedly, they have played the majority of their games without a recognised striker — with Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus only featuring in 2 games each — and have usually had to deploy a false 9 in the form of Ferran Torres and Riyad Mahrez, both of which are far from natural goalscorers.

But City’s woes in front of goal stem from much more than just personnel problems. Their numbers this season are down considerably from seasons past, and it’s clear that some of their most prominent playmakers are suffering from some sort of burnout.

City sit 13th in the league for goals scored, with just 10 from their opening 7 games (1.43 per 90) — level with Steve Bruce’s Newcastle, albeit having played 1 game fewer. They are dead level with their expected goals thus far, with an xG/90 of 1.43, a worrying decline compared to last season’s 2.5. Also notable is the decrease in the quality of their shots, with their xG value per shot slumping from 0.12 last season to just 0.08.

This drop in the quality, and ultimate success of City’s shooting stems from the seeming lack of creativity from key playmakers. The former back-to-back champions sit 5th in terms of chances created from open play (69) whilst dropping one more place to 6th for big chances created from open play (10) — behind the likes of Spurs, Leeds, Liverpool and Everton.

It is predictably Belgian maestro De Bruyne that is creating the most for his City team mates, with 17 chances and 2 big chances from open play in just 5 starts — 3rd in the league behind Mohamed Salah and Jack Grealish. More surprisingly, City’s 2nd most influential playmaker is Joao Cancelo, who has seemingly found a new lease of life this season. The Portuguese full-back has created 11 chances from open play, with 1 big chance in just 4 starts, and is currently recording 0.27 expected assists per 90 — ahead of Sterling, Mahrez, Torres and Foden.

The influence of City’s full-backs, along with the deep-lying chance creation of their main man De Bruyne, will be paramount to any success in north London. Both Cancelo and Walker have so far had outstanding seasons, and have excelled in the attacking creativity that their team-mates have lacked thus far. What they need more than anything now is a match fit finisher. We all know so well the ability of De Bruyne to defy the laws of physics, with his crosses from the deep position into the dreaded no mans land. This, alongside the sublime attacking threat of both Walker and Cancelo wide on either flank, and City’s two inverted wingers picking up space in deadly pockets in-front of the defence, all crave that final piece of the puzzle: a true poacher, ready to pounce.

A Saturday evening clash of the titans, sure to make up for the drab of an England international break. Two of Europe’s most decorated managers, and most fierce rivals go toe-to-toe in another battle of wit, testing in equal measure: tactics, bravery, and bottle.

Likely Spurs Line-up: Lloris; Aurier, Alderweireld, Dier, Reguilon; Hojbjerg, Sissoko, Ndombele; Bale, Kane, Son.

Likely City Line-up: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Laporte, Cancelo; Rodri, De Bruyne, Foden; Torres, Jesus, Sterling.

Kyle’s prediction: I hate to sit on the fence, but I’m seeing a draw with this one — albeit a thrilling one. Despite City’s probable dominance in possession, their resultant high line will likely be exposed by the rapid Son. City’s overload in midfield via their inverted wingers will open up pockets of unmanned territory for De Bruyne, who will be looking to play the decisive ball into the box. If Aguero manages to be fit, however, it’s a whole different ball game. The veteran finisher can — and might just — win the game himself.

1–1.

Kyle Newbould

Read more from Kyle - https://kylenewbould.medium.com/

[23 Year Old Kyle Newbould is one of the best up and coming football journalists and we’ve managed to snap him up before any of the big tabloids do! This will not affect the TIPS in any way, shape, or form. Simply an excellent addition for us all, giving us that extra focus on the big games when I’m sometimes caught up in the Lower Leagues around the world!]