Match Preview - Leeds v Arsenal

Super Sunday’s 4:30pm kick-off sees Leeds host Arsenal at Elland Road, in a tactical battle sure to wet the whistle of any football purist. The hosts sit 15th after a couple of disappointing results dampened their enthralling start to the season. Leeds will, however, take plenty of confidence into the game as they continue to establish themselves as a competent Premier League outfit. The Gunners sit just 2 points and 4 places above Leeds in 11th, with just 1 win — and more worryingly 1 goal — in their last 4 games.

Two pure footballing men in Marcelo Bielsa and Mikel Arteta will face off for the second time come Sunday afternoon (the first being Arsenal’s FA Cup victory last season), with one having taught Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola, and one having learnt from him. Arteta oozes calm and assuredness, like a well-aged Spanish Rioja: smooth and mellow. And while Bielsa’s tactical prowess and humility also mirror that of something for the connoisseur, his team get round that pitch as if they’ve spent their pre-match meal downing Buckfast and snorting Pro-Plus.

But which style will come out on top come Sunday? Will Bielsa’s relentless press and attacking bravery prove decisive? Or will Arteta’s meticulous build up play give the Gunners all 3 points?

Team News

Hugely positive news for Whites fans as England international Kalvin Phillips looks set to be back in contention, and expected to start, as he finishes his recovery from a shoulder injury sustained in the 1–0 home loss to Wolves. Phillips — who announced his potential return during a Call of Duty Warzone livestream with team mate Leif Davis — is set to take an injection that could have him fit and ready for the Arsenal game. No doubt a massive boost for Bielsa, as Leeds have clearly struggled defensively without their midfield talisman.

Further good news came from Bielsa’s press conference, with record signing Rodrigo due to make his return after confirmation that he has now returned a negative test for Covid-19. The Spanish international was forced to miss both the Leicester and Crystal Palace games after being advised to self-isolate, and subsequently testing positive for the virus.

Rodrigo’s imminent return to the squad will be hugely encouraging for Whites fans. His absence in the two previous heavy defeats was a massive miss for Bielsa’s side, who lacked the star-quality and midfield to attack link up play that the former Valencia front man possesses. The likelihood is that Rodrigo will take his place on the bench, ready to go if necessary.

Pablo Hernandez will miss Sunday’s clash as he has sustained a minor muscle injury. The Spanish wizard was left out of the squad for Crystal Palace after throwing his armband into the stands during Leeds’ loss to Leicester, and he is set to miss the Arsenal game also. Diego Llorente and Jamie Shackleton are both regaining fitness and are coming close to a return to play, however Arsenal’s visit has come just to soon to see either of them feature.

Brazilian winger Raphinha will be pushing once again to break into the starting line-up, after playing most of the second half against Crystal Palace. With Rodrigo only fit enough for the bench, and Hernandez out entirely, Raphinha might well move into an attacking central midfield role, linking midfield to attack in a similar sense to Rodrigo.

On the left, Jack Harrison celebrated his 24th birthday on Friday. He will become the first ever player to make 100 appearances for the club whilst on loan.

Injury news has has been on the whole more negative for the Gunners, with key defensive midfielder Thomas Partey sidelined with a thigh strain. He has been a doubt since coming off with the injury during Arsenal’s 3–0 defeat to Aston Villa, and is yet to fully recover.

Defensive midfield partner Mohamed Elneny and defender Sead Kolasinac are also unavailable for Sunday’s clash at Elland Road. Both returned positive tests during their respective international trips with Egypt and Bosnia & Herzegovina. Arteta is expected to start Granit Xhaka and Dani Ceballos as the double-pivot in central midfield, despite Gunners fans calling for the introduction of the young Ross Willock.

Last season’s top-scorer, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is set to start wide against former Arsenal academy product Luke Ayling, in what will be one of several key battles on the Elland Road turf on Sunday. Alexandre Lacazette will be up-top on his own, but typically ready to drop deep and create space in behind for his wide team mates. It will be key that Phillips is able to pick the Frenchman up in deep positions.

Tactical Preview

Leeds will be hoping to bounce back from 2 really disappointing results against Leicester and Crystal Palace, and their defensive naivety has come into question during recent weeks. The Premier League new boys have conceded a joint league high 17 goals in their opening 8 fixtures from an expected goals against (xGA) of 14.3 — also the highest in the league.

They will be hoping to show the better side of themselves on Sunday — the side we saw after 20 minutes against Man City, or the Side that comfortably beat Aston Villa 3–0 — epitomised by their relentless pressing out of possession.

Leeds’ off the ball defines them as a team. Bielsa’s side have the lowest passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) in the entirety of the European big leagues, at just 2.9 PPDA — ahead of the likes of Bayern Munich, Liverpool and RB Leipzig. They have also made the most pressures in Europe, at 1354, with a 33.7% success rate.

With Arsenal so insistent on playing out of the back, and missing some key central players, Bielsa will be hoping that the intensity of their chasing after the ball will force mistakes from his opponents, gifting Leeds attackers the ball in dangerous areas.

In possession, Leeds will have to be on top form in order to exploit any space left by a tight-kit, organised Arsenal defence. One area in which they can prosper, is the ‘half-space’ — the space inbetween wing-back and wide centre-back. With Arsenal’s wingers tucking inside to press the ball, their wing-backs will be forced to push high in order to apply pressure to Leeds’ wide-men. It’s in this critical moment that the space inbetween wing-back and wide centre-back opens up.

Leeds should be great at exploiting this space, with Ayling and Dallas comfortable underlapping into central positions, as well as Leeds’ two attacking central midfielders — especially Mateusz Klich — making penetrating runs into the half-space. Both of Bamford’s goals (allowed and disallowed) against Crystal Palace came from Klich exploiting the half space and playing the decisive through ball — a movement almost instinctive for him.

Arsenal’s woes in front of goal have been well documented over recent weeks. The Gunners have scored just 9 goals in their opening 8 games — the 6th lowest in the league — from an xG of just 9.2.

They have had just 71 shots(the same as relegation threatened West Brom) and just 26 shots on target (the same as Crystal Palace) — not the kind of company you would expect Arsenal to be in. What’s more worrying is that they sit 5th from bottom in terms of shot creating actions per 90 minutes (SCA/90), averaging just 14.25 SCA/90 — less than Sean Dyche’s Burnley.

They will see Leeds’ shaken defence as a great opportunity, however, to kick-start their season in terms of goals, and will be confident of exploiting Leeds’ brave man-marking system with their superior forwards.

Arteta deploys a dynamic 3–4–3 / 4–3–3 system on the ball, with left-sided centre-back Kieran Tierney able to push into a more orthodox left-back role, and left wing-back Ainsley Maitland-Nile able to push forward comfortably. In this instance, Arsenal have 2 possibilities: Maitland-Niles pushes into a central-midfield role in an attempt to create a makeshift 4–2–3–1 and subsequent central overload, or Aubameyang tucks in and acts as a second striker.

The gunners circulate the ball effectively in possession, creating triangles between wide centre-back, wing-back and wide forward — effectively creating a 3v2 overload vs the opposition left-back and left-mid — and working crossing positions. This tactic is mainly deployed down the left, where the Gunners are most dangerous, with Tierney able to switch seamlessly from left sided centre-back to left full-back, and Aubameyang similarly transitioning from winger to second striker with ease.

Out of possession, Arsenal’s malleable positional approach allows them to defend in 2 separate situations: Initially, their forwards provide a first phase press, attempting to cut off passing lanes. Lacazette drops onto the opposition single-pivot whilst wide forwards Aubameyang and Willian press the centre-backs, and their wing-backs press opposition full-backs. Should the press be played through, Arsenal then drop into a low block — almost a 5–2–3 — as the wing-backs drop into a more defensive shape, and the front 3 drop in to shuttle in front of their double-pivot. This low-block is something that historically has caused Leeds real problems, and something that Arteta will be hoping nullifies Leeds’ creativity at Elland Road.

Both teams will see this as must win after disappointing recent results, and both are likely to go for it. Sunday’s clash will be a game of exploiting opposition game plans, as Leeds will look to take advantage of Arsenal’s insistence to play out from the back, and dispossess in the attacking third. The Gunners will look to their world-class talent — their Lacazettes and Aubameyangs — to get the better of their opponents to maximum effect with Leeds’ man marking system.

Likely Leeds Lineup: Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Cooper, Dallas; Costa, Klich, Phillips, Raphinha, Harrison; Bamford.

Likely Arsenal lineup: Leno; Holding, Gabriel, Tierney; Bellerin, Ceballos, Xhaka, Maitland-Niles; Willian, Lacazette, Aubameyang.

Kyle’s Prediction: The return of Kalvin Phillips is massive for Leeds, and potentially game changing. His screening of a shaky defence will prove pivotal in a game dominated by exploiting weaknesses. Arsenal’s low block will once again cause problems for a Leeds team still finding their feet in the Premier League, and their superiority in terms of personnel will give them massive confidence coming into Sunday. ultimately, I think it will be summer signings that make the difference: Arsenal’s lack of, in Partey, and Leeds’ return, in Rodrigo. 2–1 Leeds, Raphinha to bag the winner.