Saturday’s 5.30pm kick-off sees Everton host Leeds United at Goodison Park, with both sides looking to get back on track following difficult periods.

It’s been 30 years since Leeds last won at Everton in the top-flight, and goalscorers that August afternoon included the late great Gary Speed — who is still remembered so fondly at Leeds, and throughout the footballing world, 9 years after his tragic death. More recent trips to Goodison Park have been less successful for the Whites, who have played four games there since the turn of the century, winless and with only two goals to their name.

Marcelo Bielsa’s side do go into Saturday’s clash on the back of an impressive, albeit frustrating, performance against Arsenal — having been denied a win on 3 occasions by the width of the post. They will be looking to re-build their momentum against the Toffees, with a packed but exciting winter period ahead.

Carlo Ancelotti’s men will also be looking to get back on track, after their 3–2 victory over Fulham ended a run of 3 consecutive losses in the league. They currently sit just outside the European positions in 6th, and will be hoping to solidify their season’s ambitions with another positive result.

Two of the most respected managers in the league will sit in opposite dugouts, as two of the division’s most exciting sides take to the pitch. But who will come out on top at the end of 90 minutes? Will the Peacocks flaunt their feathers and take all 3 points back up to Yorkshire? Or will the Toffees be sweetened by back-to-back wins and a place in the top 4?

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Team News

Ancelotti switched to a 3–4–3 / 5–4–1 formation for Everton’s 3–2 win against a struggling Fulham side, following a 4-match winless run in the Premier League. This switch undoubtably contributed towards the Toffee’s win at Craven Cottage, and they are expected to stick with it on Saturday.

They will, however, be without one of their most influential players against Leeds, after suffering a huge blow during the week. It was reported that French left-back Lucas Digne will be out for around 2 months, following an ankle injury in training which may require surgery.

Digne will be joining first-choice right-back Seamus Coleman on the sidelines. The Toffee’s club captain suffered another hamstring injury during training with the Republic of Ireland. He missed last week’s trip to Craven Cottage and will be missing for the foreseeable future, with a return date yet to be announced.

Alex Iwobi filled in as right wing-back against Fulham, and turned out one of his most impressive performances in an Everton shirt since his arrival from Arsenal — enough to earn his place in the lineup on Saturday.

On the left, Marseille academy graduate Niels NKounkou is expected to make just his second appearance in the Premier League. Carlo Ancelotti has admitted that the French U-19 international lacks top-flight experience, but is confident in his ability to fill in for his more experienced compatriot.

Richarlison made his return at Fulham — following his red card in the Merseyside Derby — and made his presence felt instantly, setting up top-scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin after just 30 seconds. He is expected to start wide of Calvert-Lewin, with Colombian talisman James Rodriguez on the right.

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Leeds welcomed the return of two of their most important players for Sunday’s draw against Arsenal. Midfield general Kalvin Phillips played the full 90 minutes, whilst club record signing Rodrigo made a hugely positive impact off the bench. The latter also featured for the under-23’s during the week, in an attempt to build his fitness in preparation for Saturday.

Another summer signing, Raphinha, staked his claim for a spot in the first XI last weekend, with an exciting performance on the right of Leeds’ midfield. His seemingly telepathic link up play with Mateusz Klich — who Bielsa proclaimed could “play in all the best teams in the world” — gave the Leeds head coach plenty of food for thought.

The Argentine, who has been through some huge ups and downs this week — after being nominated for FIFA best coach, and then learning of the tragic death of his compatriot Diego Maradona — will have plenty to ponder in the build-up to Saturday. Gjanni Alioski further strengthened his bid for more regular football with another impressive performance on Sunday, whilst another exciting and fearless second half performance from former Manchester City winger Ian Poveda, will give Bielsa another selection headache for the weekend— albeit a good one.

Leeds will again be without their two Spanish internationals, Pablo Hernandez (hamstring) and Diego Llorente (groin), whilst they continue to recover from their respective injuries. Jamie Shackleton continues to be unavailable for selection, as does long-term absentee Adam Forshaw.

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Tactical Preview

The home side have been one of the most exciting sides to watch this season, with a spate of seriously impressive performances early on, followed by some disappointing, but still entertaining performances in more recent weeks.

The toffees have have bagged 19 goals from their opening 9 games, averaging 2.11 goals per 90 minutes from an xG/90 of 1.52 — slightly over-performing, as are most of the top sides — alongside the average concession of 1.78 goals per 90, from an xGA/90 of 1.24.

Their front three provide huge fire-power, with Calvert-Lewin rightly grabbing the headlines. The 23-year old has found the net an impressive 10 times in Everton’s first 9 games, making him the league’s top scorer ahead of Heung-Min Son and Jamie Vardy. What’s more impressive is that he has hit that from an xG so far this season of just 6.0, indicating some clinical finishing from the recent England international.

Colombian talisman Rodriguez caught everyone’s eye during the opening weeks of the season, not least for his brace against Brighton in gameweek 4, backed up by a pin-point assist for Yerry Mina. Pure assists do not tell the full story for the former Real Madrid and Bayern Munich man, however, as he is slowly becoming the king of the ‘pre-assist’ — that is, the action that sets up the player who assists the goalscorer. Rodriguez sits second in the league only to Hakim Ziyech (who has had considerably less playing time to level out his hot streak) in goal creating actions per 90 minutes (GCA/90), averaging 1.36, with 10 GCA in his opening 9 appearances.

It looks to be the return of his opposition winger Richarlison that makes the difference to this Toffees side — who have lost all 3 of their games since his dismissal in the Merseyside Derby. Since Richarlison’s introduction to Goodison Park in 2018, Everton have not won a single league game in which the Brazilian has been missing, an almost unbelievable record without their left-winger.

Whilst the front three are almost penned in to the starting XI every week, it’s those behind them that are becoming somewhat of a headache for Ancelotti. The Italian veteran has most commonly deployed a 4–3–3 fomation, with Brazilian engine Allan sitting between Abdoulaye Doucoure and Andre Gomes. But recent defensive frailties forced Ancelotti to move to a 3–4–3 formation, with his Everton side more recently showing vulnerability down the right-hand side, as Rodriguez’ defensive responsibilities seem to fade into insignificance. Switching to a back 3 — with comfortable centre-back / full-back hybrid Ben Godfrey on the right of the 3 — allows Everton’s front men to focus purely on attacking, with plenty of defensive cover in wide positions, whilst their industrious double-pivot in midfield is more than capable of handling the added workload coming from a numerical disadvantage.

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Bielsa’s Leeds will line-up in a more predictable 4–1–4–1, with Kalvin Phillips providing a single-pivot in front of the Whites back 4. In possession, however, this will merge into more of a classic Bielsa 3–3–1–3, as Phillips drops deep, full-backs Dallas and Ayling push up into the ‘half-space’ alongside Klich, and Rodrigo plays a more free role in behind Leeds’ front 3. It’s this space between midfield and defence for the Spain international that is likely to bring the most success for Leeds.

Whilst Everton’s two central-midfielders are most certainly full of energy and defensive intelligence, neither of them possess the pure defensive discipline needed for the revered ‘Makelele role’, and with plenty to deal with ahead of them, in the form of Klich and Phillips — alongside half-space full-backs Ayling and Dallas — the creation of space in behind these two is inevitable. It is also something that Rodrigo has mastered, as shown in his second-half performance against Arsenal. The former Valencia man has become what is known as a ‘Raumdeuter’: a position invented by the German Thomas Muller, and translated to ‘space interpreter’. His positional play inbetween the lines is what sets Rodrigo apart from his Leeds team mates, as the elite within the industry, and is likely to cause Everton countless problems.

Out wide, Leeds will look to create 2v1 overloads as Jack Harrison, and one of Raphinha or Helder Costa, are propped up by the attacking presence of Dallas and Ayling respectively. This will inevitably pull out one of Everton’s wide centre-backs, subsequently opening up the deadly half-space in which Leeds’ main men, Rodrigo and Klich, operate most effectively. These pockets of space are where the creativity of the Spaniard and the Pole take centre-stage. Rodrigo will look to cut inside and shoot from range, whilst Klich will look for intricate passes through to Patrick Bamford, similar to his assist — and disallowed assist — at Selhurst Park, as well as finishing himself from tight positions, case in point: Leeds’ 3rd goal at Anfield.

Leeds will take great confidence from their opponents defensive set-up. The 3–4–3 formation is one that has caused Leeds several problems already this season — losing to both Wolves and Leicester in such a set-up — but the difference between Everton and the two aforementioned opponents is the level at which they set their guard. In very basic terms, teams defensive set-ups will be split into 3 main categories (in practice, the majority of teams will operate a 3-way hybrid of all options, based on the individual scenarios that arise during the 90 minutes): High-press, mid-block and low-block.

Leeds’ biggest problems under Bielsa — both this season and seasons past — are teams that sit in a low-block and absorb pressure. Opposition compactness both inbetween midfield and defence, and inbetween wide players and central players, nullifies Leeds’ intricate passing plays and verticality within transitions. Leeds’ best performance of the season, against Aston Villa, came against a mid-block — the very system utilised by Ancelotti’s Everton. The mid-level line allows Leeds to comfortably work the ball out from defence under minimal pressure, whilst simultaneously allowing their attacking players to find pockets of space, inbetween an ever dispersed defensive and midfield line. These spaces are where the Likes of Rodrigo, Klich, and the 3rd man Raphinha can drift into, pulling defenders out of position and creating space in behind for the Likes of Bamford and Harrison.

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Key Battles

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is amongst the most physical front-men in the league, and Leeds captain Liam Cooper will have to provide one of his best performance of the season to keep him quiet. With Leeds likely to press high and force the Toffees defence to initially go long. DCL’s hold-up play will prove vital in bringing his star-studded forward line of Richarlison and Rodriguez into play. If Cooper can physically dominate Calvert-Lewin, and win the first ball, Leeds will be allowed to build attacking momentum, much to the same extent as they did against Aubameyang and Arsenal.

Up the other end of the pitch, Rodrigo will be looking to utilise the space in behind a busy double-pivot of Allan and Doucoure. It will likely be the former Napoli midfielder, Allan, that will be tasked with picking Rodrigo up. If Allan can successfully nullify Rodrigo, Leeds’ main creative output will be suffocated into predictable passes wide — exactly where Everton’s back 3 will want the ball to be. If the Spanish international can exploit the space left behind by an overloaded midfield unit, however, his star quality — and wicked left-foot — will repay his record price-tag in no time, much to Everton’s expense.

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As two of the most exciting teams in the league go toe-to-toe, it’s almost impossible to predict the outcome of Saturday’s clash. Both Ancelotti and Bielsa have earned there stripes as two of the world’s most respected mangers, and continue to influence the modern game. As their sides take to the turf on Saturday, only one thing can be guaranteed: entertainment.

Likely Everton Line-up: Pickford; Godfrey, Mina, Keane; Iwobi, Doucoure, Allan, NKounkou; Rodriguez, Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison.

Likely Leeds Line-up: Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Cooper, Dallas; Raphinha, Klich, Phillips, Rodrigo, Harrison; Bamford.

Kyle’s Prediction: Predicting a result in a game between two sides like this is nigh-on-impossible, but I’m going to go for it anyway — It is what I’m paid for at the end of the day. Everton’s formation will cause Leeds initial problems, but after coming to terms and learning to exploit the space left behind the Toffee’s mid-block, the likes of Rodrigo and Klich will find joy in their pockets of space. Leeds’ vulnerable back-line will concede something sloppy, however Bielsa will come out the victor, as Leeds take all 3 points back up to West Yorkshire. 2–1 Leeds — Rodrigo to bag the winner.