Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

ATALANTA V SASSUOLO

Italy Serie A 14:00 KO

Sunday’s pick of the day comes from Lombardy, Italy, as Atalanta host Sassuolo in a mouthwatering Serie A clash. Two of the league’s most exciting attacking sides in recent seasons, both Atalanta and Sassuolo have established themselves amongst the giants of Italian football, and both are pushing for a European place.

The hosts currently sit just outside those European places in 7th. They are, however, only 4 points behind their opponents, with 6 wins, 4 draws and 22 points so far this season. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are unbeaten in their last 4 league games, which have included impressive wins at home to Fiorentina (3–0) and Roma (4–1).

Their visitors this afternoon sit 3 places above their hosts in 4th. Their 7 wins and 5 draws have earned them 26 points. They, like Atalanta, have lost just once in their last 5 (a 2–1 defeat to top of the table AC Milan) and only twice all season — to either Milan side. Away from home, Sassuolo are without defeat this season, and the impetuous for the home side to come out and attack them has lead to some enthralling wins, not least last weeks 3–2 win at Sampdoria.

Sassuolo last beat Atalanta in April 2014, and since then the hosts have won 9 of the 16 games, including the last 7 in a row. Unsurprisingly, this fixture usually delivers goals, with the last 4 games producing an astonishing 22 goals, averaging 5.5 goals per game.

Statistical Analysis

Both sides have been rightly lauded for their attacking football this season, and the home side have backed their praise. 4th in the league for goals scored, with 28 goals from an xG of 23.5.

At home, their games are averaging 3.83 goals per 90 minutes (2.33 for and 1.5 against), slightly outperforming the xG/90 average of 3.13. They have scored 10 in their last 4 overall, and regularly found great joy in front of goal, scoring 3+ goals on 5 occasions this season.

Having conceded 20 times in their 13 games, Atalanta’s defence has been cause for some concern. Whilst goals have been flowing in attack, they have also been leaky at the back. Gasperini’s side have kept just 2 clean sheets in the league this season, and have conceded in 4 of their last 5.

As expected, Sassuolo have further established themselves as the aesthetically pleasing, attacking side which earned the love of the neutral in seasons past. Roberto De Zerbi’s side have scored an average of 2.29 goals per 90 on their travels, from an xG/90 of 1.63. Another example of regular scorers, they have drawn a blank just once away from home, in a 0–0 draw at Roma, whilst scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their 7 away days.

De Zerbi will be heavily reliant on the long-time duo of Francesco Caputo and Domenico Berardi for goals. the pair have 13 goals and 7 assists between them this season, and are both ahead of the pack by some way in terms of xG (Caputo’s xG is 4.6, Berardi’s is 4.5 and third place is Filip Duricic with just 1.9). The pair have only scored once between them in their last 5 meetings with Atalanta however (Berardi scored in their 3–1 defeat in 2019), who have usually come away the victors.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.53 [8/15]: When the two free-scoring sides come together, it usually leads to goals. Despite Atalanta’s dominance in terms of results, Sassuolo almost always bag a goal, and 6 of their last 7 have resulted in both teams scoring. Sassuolo have only failed to score once on their travels, whilst Atalanta have drawn 1 blank and kept 1 clean sheet in their 6 home games.

Higher Risk Tip — ATALANTA TO WIN & BTTS @2.63 [13/8]: In addition to the above stats, Atalanta’s record against Sassuolo is outstanding. They have won 7 in a row against their visitors, scoring 23 goals in the process. Both home and away they have the beating of Sassuolo, and despite their inferiority in the league standings, I expect them to be superior by the end of the day.