Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

CHELSEA V WEST HAM

England Premier League 20:00 KO

After a weekend spent in Germany and Italy, Monday’s GOTD pick sees us return back to England, and to the Premier League, as West Ham make the short 12 mile trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea.

The home side start the Christmas week in 8th, with the majority of teams in and around them having already played. They are, however, on 22 points, and can go as high as 3rd with a win tonight. Frank Lampard’s side had been on a 9-game unbeaten run in the league, that was until trips to Everton and Wolves both ended in defeat — 1–0 and 2–1 respectively. They will be desperate to avoid a 3rd straight loss going into Christmas.

The Hammers sit one place, and one point behind their hosts in 9th. They can push themselves into the European places on goal difference with a comfortable win tonight, and will be going into the match full of confidence after a brilliant start to the season. Their 3–1 defeat to Manchester United was their only loss in the last 6 games, and they have won their last 2 games away from home.

In recent history, Chelsea have somewhat struggled against the Hammers, winning just 1 of their last 5 meetings — a 2–0 win in 2019 — and the last meeting between the two in July produced a memorable 3–2 win, with Andrey Yarmalenko grabbing a last minute winner.

Statistical Analysis

Lampard’s Chelsea side have seemingly hit a bump in the road recently, with 2 defeats in their last 2 games. Prior to that was the 9-game unbeaten streak which saw them solid and the back and free scoring up-top.

Games at Stamford Bridge are averaging 3.5 goals per game (2.33 for and 1.17 against) from an xG/90 of 3.41. Chelsea have shown their ability to put teams to the sword at home, slamming 3 past Leeds, and 4 past Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. Against fellow title chasing sides, however, Chelsea struggle.

The Blues failed to score a single goal against Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Everton, earning them a reputation for being flat-track bullies. What’s more concerning is that in those 4 games, Chelsea recorded an average xG/90 of just 0.75 — for comparison, their average xG/90 for the remaining 9 games is 2.07.

David Moyes’ West Ham side have been brilliant value this season. Their matches have averaged 2.85 goals per game (1.62 for and 1.23 against) from an xG/90 of 2.98. On their travels, the numbers increase to 3.17 goals per game (1.83 for and 1.33 against) from an xG/90 of 3.08.

Furthermore, the Hammers have found the net in every away game this season, keeping just 2 clean sheets in the process. 5 of their 6 away trips have produced over 2.5 match goals, with a couple of brilliant performances, both in a 3–0 win at Leicester and the memorable 3–3 comeback at Tottenham.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — UNDER 3.5 MATCH GOALS @ 1.57 [4/7]: With 2 solid defences going head-to-head, don’t expect this to be a thriller. Chelsea’s goals tally has been inflated by big wins against weaker sides, whilst their xG against top-sides is cause for concern. West Ham’s ability to absorb pressure and minimise chances is likely to nullify much of Chelsea’s attacking flair.

Higher Risk Tip — CHELSEA TO WIN TO NIL @ 2.75 [7/4]: Frank Lampard will be desperate to get back to winning ways, and will be hoping to use tonight’s game as a catalyst for the busy winter period. Fortunately for Frank, Chelsea’s solid defence are well equipped to deal with their opponents pace on the counter and set-piece threat. If the Blues are up for it, expect them to nullify the Hammers effectively, and get that in they so desperately need.