LAZIO V NAPOLI
Italy Serie A - 19:45
In a weekend full of massive fixtures, Serie A has conjured up 3 huge games in one day. Sassuolo host AC Milan and Atalanta host Roma earlier on in the afternoon, however the pick of the day comes from Rome, and the Stadio Olimpico, as Lazio host Napoli with both sides desperate for a result to kickstart a slow season.
The hosts sit 9th, after their worst start to a domestic season in 5 years has yielded just 5 wins and 3 draws from 12 games. The season so far has been one of inconsistency for Simone Inzaghi’s side, summed up perfectly by their last 5 games, which have brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Interestingly, both of their recent defeats , and 3 of their 4 total defeats, have come at home to Atalanta, Udinese and Hellas Verona.
Gennaro Gattuso’s Napoli side currently sit in 6th, with 8 wins and 4 losses from their opening 12 games yielding 24 points — 6 more than their hosts. They had won 3 in a row before their midweek trip to Inter Milan ended in a 1–0 defeat. Napoli are yet to record back-to-back defeats this season, and are also without a single draw in their opening 12 fixtures.
Statistical Analysis
As previously mentioned, Lazio’s total of 18 points in 12 games is their worst start to a Serie A season in 5 years. Games involving the home side are averaging 3.17 total match goals per game (1.5 for and 1.67 against) from an xG/90 of 2.67.
Whilst getting on the scoreboard isn’t proving a problem for Lazio — who have found the net in 92% of their games this season — building on that is where the issues lie. The hosts have scored more than 2 goals just once all season, in a thrilling 4–3 win at Torino, and have the 7th worst xG/90 in the league (1.27) behind 16th placed Spezia.
They are also towards the middle of the table in terms of shots per 90 (11.83), goals per shot (0.11) and shot creating actions per 90 (18.58). Any goals that do come are likely to come from top scorer and key man Ciro Immobile. The Italian forward has hit 7 goals in his 9 starts, from an xG of just 4.7, highlighting the 30-year old’s clinical nature. He has also bagged in 4 of his last 5 matches against Napoli.
The visitors themselves come into Sunday’s fixture hoping to avoid consecutive defeats for the first time this season, after a late Danilo D’Ambrosio goal earned Inter a 1–0 win during the week.
Gattuso’s side are, almost identically, producing an average of 3.18 total match goals per game this season (2.36 for and 0.82 against) from an xG/90 of 2.83. Away from home, they have won all but 2 of their domestic fixtures, losing only to Juventus and Inter.
Whilst 4th in the league in terms of goals scored (26), their xG of 19.7 (6th in the league) once again suggests an over-performance in terms of finishing. Top scorer Hirving Lozano’s 6 goals from an xG of just 3.7 indicates, similarly to Immobile, some clinical finishing.
In head-to-head fixtures, Napoli have won 4 of the last 5 Serie A games between the two, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 5 in the process. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and the average total goals tally in the last 5 is 3.2 per game.
Tips
Medium Risk Tip — BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.70 [7/10]: Lazio have scored in every single home game this season, and are yet to keep a clean sheet at the Stadio Olimpico. Napoli have scored in 4 out of their 6 away games, and have proven themselves vulnerable to the league’s more potent attacks, conceding to both Inter and Juventus.
Higher Risk Tip — FULL TIME RESULT - DRAW @ 3.40 [12/5]: As we have already mentioned, Napoli will be desperate not to record their first consecutive defeats all season, and Lazio will be desperate to get at least a point on the board following a highly disappointing draw to Benevento. With this in mind, Sunday’s clash is likely to be a cagey one, and Lazio’s home advantage is likely to be cancelled out by Napoli’s superior form, producing a typically Italian stalemate.
