BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH

Gerrmany Bundesliga - 17:30 KO

With the festive period now officially upon us, European fixture lists are set to become more congested. There are a host of mouthwatering fixtures across the continent this weekend, and Saturday’s GOTD pick comes from the Bundesliga, as 1st place Bayer Leverkusen host 2nd place Bayern Munich. A top of the table clash sure to wet the whistle of the neutral.

Unusual for the Bundesliga, it is not Munich who sit top. Peter Bosz’ Leverkusen side are 1 point ahead of their visitors, with 8 wins and 4 draws so far, in an unbeaten start to the 2020/2021 domestic season. Leverkusen’s incredible form, in fact, spans across the entirety of their campaign, with just 1 defeat in their astonishing 19 games across all competitions — a 1–0 away defeat to Slavia Prague.

Whilst not top, Munich are far from struggling. Just 1 point behind their hosts with 8 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss — albeit a crushing 4–1 defeat away at Hoffenheim — leaving them level with RB Leipzig on 27 points. In another ridiculously congested schedule, the visitors are unbeaten in their last 17 games across all competitions, which includes convincing wins against the likes of Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid.

Whilst it is way too early in the season to label this as anything close to a ‘title-decider’ or a ‘6-pointer’, Saturday’s clash could be a huge momentum boost for either side, and could prove pivotal come the end of the season.

Statistical Analysis

Bosz’ Leverkusen side have been undoubtably sensational this season, with just the singular aforementioned defeat in all competitions, both domestically and across Europe.

In terms of their domestic form, Leverkusen are undefeated, averaging 3.08 match goals per game (2.25 for and 0.83 against) from an xG/90 of 2.55 — with both them and their opponents outperforming their xG on average, considerations need to be taken into account when predicting future matches.

Equally important is the consideration of which teams Leverkusen hit goals against. As it stands, they have played equal games against top half (top 9) and bottom half (bottom 9) sides. In their 6 games against bottom half sides, they have scored 18 times — averaging 3 goals for per game. However, in their as many games against top half sides, they have scored just 9 goals — averaging just 1.5 goals per game. Another important consideration when looking at Saturday’s game.

Hans Dieter Flick’s Munich side have, similarly to Leverkusen, been outstanding so far this season, winning 7 of their last 10 Bundesliga fixtures, and drawing the other 3. Munich’s games are averaging a heart-racing 4.58 goals per game this season (3.08 for and 1.50 against) from an xG/90 of 3.42 — again highlighting an over-performance of xG, mainly from Robert Lewandowski hitting 15 from an xG of just 8.7, earning him the title of Fifa Best Men’s Player during the week.

Whilst Munich’s goals per 90 stats are by far and away the best in the league, their defensive stats leave a lot to be desired. Their average concession of 1.5 goals per game is just joint 6th in the division, and their xGA/90 of 1.47 is just 9th. Flick’s side have kept just 2 clean sheets this season — in an 8–0 win against Schalke and a 5–0 win against Frankfurt — and have conceded in each of their last 7 Bundesliga fixtures.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — UNDER 3.5 MATCH GOALS @ 1.95 [10/11]: Leverkusen’s goal numbers have been heavily inflated by dominant performances against lower-ranked sides, whilst games against similar opponents have been significantly more cagey. Munich are conceding goals regularly, but not worryingly — conceding just once in 4 of their last 5 games. With both sides looking not to lose against potential title contenders, expect a fairly cagey affair.

High Risk Tip — DRAW AND BTTS @ 4.33 [10/3]: Once again, expect Saturday’s clash to be a cagey one. Leverkusen haven’t lost all season, and Munich have lost just once. Neither side will want to come away from Saturday with nothing, with both Bosz and Flick likely happy to take a point. Safe to say it won’t be a thriller.