Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

ATALANTA v FIORENTINA

Italy Serie A - 14:00 KO

Sunday’s GOTD pick comes from Bergamo, North Italy, as Fiorentina make the trip up towards the Lombardy region to face Atalanta. Both sides are currently out of sorts, equally picking up just 5 points in their last half a dozen games in Serie A.

Atalanta currently sit in 9th, after a fearsome start had somewhat been dampened by European commitments, and subsequent weekend fatigue. They have won just once in their last 5 league games — a 2–1 win against bottom of the table Crotone — and have seen their goal tally drop dramatically, from 13 in 3 to just 5 in 6. Encouraging European results against Liverpool and Ajax may well prove the catalyst for this season — even if it furthers their Champions League commitments into the knockout stages.

If Atalanta are out of sorts, then Fiorentina are bordering on crisis. They sit in 17th, with just 2 wins, 3 draws and 9 points. They haven’t won a single game in their last 5, and have scored just once. Fiorentina manager Cesare Prandelli is fully aware that his side are, as it stands, in a relegation fight this season, but they will be coming up against familiar opponents this weekend, having recorded more wins against Atalanta (58) than any other side in the club’s history.

Statistical Breakdown

As we’ve already mentioned, Atalanta’s midweek fixture congestion is seemingly stinting their domestic development. After an exhilarating start — in which they blew away Torino, Lazio and Cagliari, scoring 13 goals in the process — Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have fallen into a goal drought, scoring more than once on just one occasion in their last 6 games.

Their xG total has been somewhat inflated by their opening games, averaging 3.78 match goals per game (2 for and 1.78 against) from an xG/90 of 3.11. In the last 5 games, however, this has dropped to an average match goals per game of just 2.2 (0.8 for and 1.4 against) from an xG/90 of 2.8 — a sign of a team struggling to find the energy resources so abundant during the opening weeks.

Fiorentina come into Saturday’s game on the back of a woeful run of form, which has seen them winless in their last 5 league games, with just 1 goal— a last minute equaliser against Genoa — to show for it. Overall this season, their games have averaged 2.7 match goals per game (1.1 for and 1.6 against) from an xG/90 of 3.06.

As a matter of fact, Fiorentina’s xG stats show they are in a somewhat false position in 17th. Their xG/90 of 1.39 is joint 10th in the league alongside Cagliari. They are also producing 16.90 shot creating actions per 90 (level with Hellas Verona) and 3.60 shots on target per 90 — nothing special, but certainly better than 17th. Their goals per 90 total of just 1.10 is the 7th worst in the league though, and is reflective of some rued chances.

Head to head games between these two have produced goals over the last couple of seasons, with both teams scoring in all of the last 4 meetings. However, with both sides struggling to find their mojo up top, expect a more cagey affair this weekend.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — ATALANTA TO WIN @ 1.67 [4/6]: Fiorentina have lost all of their last 3 away fixtures without scoring a single goal, and are yet to win away all season. Atalanta will be flying on the back of a midweek win against Ajax, and subsequent qualification for the knockout stages of the Champions League. They will be determined to carry that momentum into Saturday with a home win.

Higher Risk Tip — UNDER 2.5 MATCH GOALS@ 2.38 [11/8]: Both sides have seen a dip in average goals scored as the season progresses, with Fiorentina in particular proving wasteful away from home. There has only been 2.5+ goals in 2 of Atalanta’s last 5 games, and none of Fiorentina’s, so expect more of the same when the two come together. It’s unlikely to be a thriller.