Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

BORUSSIA DORTMUND V STUTTGART

Germany Bundesliga - 14:30 KO

Saturday’s GOTD pick comes from the Signal Iduna Park in Germany, as Borussia Dortmund host VFB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga.

Lucian Favre’s Dortmund side currently sit 4th in the Bundesliga on 19 points. A recent slip in form has seen them win just once in their last 4 games, with the 4 beforehand resulting in a perfect 4 wins. Their 5–2 thrashing at Hertha Berlin is sandwiched inbetween losses to Bayern Munich and FC Koln, with their most recent away day yielding a 1–1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt.

Dortmund’s opponents for Saturday are in 8th place, 5 points behind their hosts on 14. Last week’s 2–1 win away at relegation threatened Werder Bremen ended a woeful run of 5 games without a win — which included 4 draws in a row. All 3 of Stuttgart’s wins this season have come on the road, and last week’s last minute winner went viral, after Silas Wamangituka literally walked the ball to goal, before pausing, and smashing it into an empty net from millimetres.

Dortmund have won all 3 of the last meetings between the two sides, scoring 10 and conceding just 1 in the process. Stuttgart will be hoping that run comes to an end on Saturday, and will be dreaming of taking all 3 points back down south.

Statistical Breakdown

Dortmund, being the home side and the better side, are odds on favourites to win on Saturday, priced at 1/2. Stuttgart sit at 5/1 for a shock away win, with a draw priced at 7/2.

Games at Signal Iduna Park are averaging 3.6 goals per game, from an xG/90 of exactly 3, with the hosts usually outscoring their opponents 2.6 to 1. They have scored in every one of their home games this season, including 4 past Freiburg and 3 past Borussia Monchengladbach. Overall this season, Favre’s side have the highest xG/90 in the Bundesliga, with 2.26 average goals per game. They are also top of the table for shots per 90 (15.7) and joint 2nd for shot creating actions per 90 (26.00)

They will, however, be without Norwegian Wunderkind Erling Haland, who is currently injured and out for the foreseeable future. Haland is the club’s top scorer by far with 10 goals — second is Mats Hummels on 3. With the likes of Jadon Sancho, Giovanni Reyna, Marco Reus and Julian Brandt all available, Haland’s goals are likely to be shared between the entire front line. They are all more than capable of filling the Norwegian’s boots.

Stuttgart’s away games — like Dortmund’s home games — are averaging 3.6 match goals per game, from an xG/90 of 2.84. Also like Dortmund, they are usually outscoring their hosts, with 2.4 goals for and 1.2 goals against. Overall, they have recorded the 4th highest xG/90 in the league (1.82), as well as the 4th most shots on target per 90 (5.10) and the 4th most shot creating actions per 90 (24.20).

All of Stuttgart’s last 6 games, and Dortmund’s last 4 games, have ended with both teams scoring, with both teams also recording over 2.5 match goals in 60% of their games (6/10).

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS @ 1.80 [4/5]: As mentioned above, both teams have scored in the majority of both Dortmund and Stuttgart’s recent matches, with 2.5+ goals coming 60% of the time. With two of the league’s more creative sides going head to head, the chances — and hopefully goals — are likely to come.

Higher Risk Tip — DORTMUND RACE TO 7 CORNERS @ 2.40 [7/5]: The home side are expected to take control of the game early, and maintain control throughout. Their games are averaging 11.1 corners per game, and the flow of the game is likely to mean Dortmund will have the lion’s share.