Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

Leeds v West Ham

England Premier League - 20:00 KO

It’s a Friday night under the lights at Elland Road, as Leeds host West Ham in the first Premier League game of the weekend — and Friday’s game of the day.

Leeds go into the weekend in 14th place with 4 wins, 2 draws and 14 points. They have just 1 win in their last 5 games — understandably in a difficult run of fixtures that included Leicester, Everton and Chelsea — and will be hoping to bounce back come Friday, with a more promising fixture list during the chaotic Christmas period.

In what is proving to be a packed out mid-table, the Hammers sit 6 places above Leeds — albeit only 3 points better off — in 8th. They go into Friday’s fixture in comparatively more promising form, with 3 wins in a row preceding last weekends frustrating 3–1 defeat to Manchester United.

It’s been 8 years since these two sides last met — a 1–1 draw at Elland Road in the Championship — and West Ham are without a win against Friday’s opposition in the last 9 meetings. They’ll be hoping to break the run after such a long spell in different leagues, whilst Leeds will be hoping to break their own bad spell this season.

Statistical Breakdown

As the home side, Leeds are slight favourites to win Fridays game at 6/5. An away win for the Hammers is at 21/20, with a draw priced at 13/5.

The Whites will be hoping to bounce back from last weekend’s disappointing defeat at the hands of Chelsea, arguably one of the first games in which they have been completely outplayed, albeit by a team nearly 10x their worth.

At home, Leeds are without a win in 4, and have struggled to find their form during a difficult period of fixtures. They’ve only kept a clean sheet in 1 of their games at home (a 0–0 draw with Arsenal) and are conceding, on average, 1.8 goals per game from an xG/90 of 1.58. Going forward, Marcelo Bielsa’s side are averaging 1.2 goals per home game, from an xG of 1.87 — suggesting a characteristic inefficiency going forward, and some sloppy play at the back.

The Hammers’ away days are averaging 3.2 match goals per game, from an xG/90 of 2.94. They have managed to score in every game on their travels, whilst keeping a clean sheet only twice. David Moyes’ two most recent away fixtures have been losses against two of Leeds’ most recent opponents, Arsenal and Everton — losing both whilst conceding the lion’s share of possession.

In terms of tactics, West Ham are almost certainly happy to concede possession to Leeds, who will be hoping that the re-introduction of Rodrigo to the starting lineup will bolster their creativity. Moyes’ side will be looking to pounce on the counter attack, and also dominate — as Chelsea did — at set pieces, with both Robin Koch and Diego Llorente out injured.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — UNDER 1.5 FIRST HALF GOALS @ 1.53 [8/15]: On the back of 3–1 defeats for both West Ham and Leeds last weekend, both sides will be airing on the side of caution early on. The Hammers will hold their defensive shape in the hope of frustrating Bielsa’s side, who will be cautious of their opponents speed on the counter. Ultimately, the two will just about cancel each other out — for the first 45 anyway.

Higher Risk Tip — LEEDS TO WIN @ 2.20 [6/5]: As confirmed by Bielsa during Wednesday’s pre-match press conference, Rodrigo is due to start in central midfield on Friday. For Leeds, this is hugely promising, as it will be the first time Rodrigo, Raphinha and Mateusz Klich — in his preferred 8 position — all start together. The Hammers wins this season have usually come as a result of out-working their opponents off the ball, something they will struggle to do against this relentless Leeds side, who will ultimately come out on top.