Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

Roma v Sassuolo

Italy Serie A - 14:00 KO

It’s another trip into the continent for Sunday’s game of the day pick. To Rome, and the Stadio Olimpico, as Roma host Sassuolo in a super Sunday Serie A special.

These sides go into Sunday’s clash as two of the most in form outfits in what is proving an incredibly competitive Serie A title chase this season, with up to 6 sides all dreaming of the infamous Scudetto.

The home side are, incidentally, the team propping up that sextet of title challengers in 6th spot, with 5 wins and 17 points in their first 9 games. A 7 game unbeaten streak — during which they earned hard fought draws against Juventus and AC Milan — is bookended by defeats, firstly, on the opening day to Hellas Verona, and more recently, last week’s 4–0 loss to Napoli. They will be hoping to return to the form that saw them net 16 times in the 5 games that preceded the Napoli defeat.

Sassuolo are currently sitting pretty in 3rd, also with 5 wins from their opening 9 games, however on 18 points — resultant of 1 more draw. The north Italian side will also be hoping to bounce back from a recent defeat —in fact their only defeat this season — at home to Inter Milan. That outstanding run of form saw Roberto De Zerbi’s side win 5 and draw 3 of their opening games, scoring 20 goals in the process, and catching the eye of the neutral…

Statistical Breakdown

As the home side, Roma are odds-on favourites to win Sunday’s game at 4/6. Sassuolo are 7/2, with a draw at 10/3.

Paulo Fonseca’s side have been great entertainment value this season, and are averaging 3.5 total match goals per game, from a relatively close xG/90 of 3.55. They have scored in all but 2 of their matches — both defeats, incidentally — and are averaging 3 goals scored from an xG/90 of 3.17 at home this season — where they are yet to lose a game, both in the league, and in Europe.

The 2000/2001 Serie A winners are second in the league behind the unstoppable AC Milan in terms of xG/90, with 2.23, yielding a return of 2.11 goals per 90 minutes on average. They have scored in every home game this season, and have mustered up some thrillers — both at the Stadio Olimpico and on their travels — against their fellow title contenders, with high scoring draws against Juventus (2–2) and AC Milan (3–3).

Sassuolo are quickly becoming the neutral’s favourite this season, making their mark on a title chase dominated by historic titans such as the Milan sides and Juve. They found the net 20 times in their opening 9 games, from an xG of just 14.3, indicating some clinical finishing from the likes of Domenico Berardi and Francesco Caputo.

The away side have won all 4 games on their travels this season, with an average of 4 goals per game — 3 for and 1 against — from an xG/90 of 3.57. Recent away day victories against Napoli and Hellas Verona both came from having a lower xG than their opponents, and taking their chances when they come — for anyone interested, Napoli recorded an xG of 2.3 and Hellas Verona recorded 1.2, both scored 0 however.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS & BTTS @1.62 [8/13]: Both Roma and Sassuolo are amongst the most exciting attacking sides in the league, and they have both shown no fear when coming up against fellow title challengers. Both of their games last season finished 4–2 to the home side, so once again, we’ll be hoping for goals.

Higher Risk Tip — ROMA TO WIN BTTS @ 2.75 [7/4]: The home side will be looking to continue their solid form in the capital and add another game to their unbeaten home run. Despite Sassuolo’s enthralling play style, the stats would suggest they are in a slightly false position in 3rd, and are regularly outperforming their xG by some way, whilst banking on opponents underperforming their own. That good fortune must level out at some point, and I think it’s going to start on Sunday.