Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

Chelsea v Leeds

England Premier League - 20:00 KO

Saturday’s main event sees old rivalries — some much older than others — re-ignited, as Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds make the trip down south to face Frank Lampard’s Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Much has been made of the ‘spy-gate’ saga in the build-up to this weeks match, but both managers have been keen to relinquish any talk of previous ‘rivalries’ and both want to focus on the game in hand, which is likely to be a thriller.

Lampard’s Chelsea have recently emerged as genuine title contenders, and are unbeaten since their 2–0 defeat to Liverpool back in gameweek 2. The home side currently sit 3rd on 19 points, and are the league’s joint-top scorers, alongside Liverpool themselves — with 22 goals. Early defensive worries have been somewhat quashed in recent weeks, with the Blues conceding just once in their last 5 top-flight games — admittedly against the likes of Burnley, Sheffield and Newcastle.

That defence will be tested thoroughly at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, as Chelsea welcome one of the most exciting attacking sides in the league: Bielsa’s Leeds. The Whites sit in 12th on 14 points, and are finding their feet in the division after an exhilarating start was followed by worrying defeats — ‘ups and downs’, so to speak.

Two 4 goal drubbings against Leicester and Crystal Palace were followed by two outstanding performances against Arsenal and Everton, earning a 0–0 draw and a 1–0 win respectively. Leeds managed 48 shots in their 2 most recent games, an almost unfathomable amount when considering their two opponents.

Statistical Breakdown

As the home side, and the side higher up the table, Chelsea are clear favourites at 1/2. Leeds are 5/1 to win at Stamford Bridge, with a draw priced at 7/2.

Lampard’s side are full of goals, and have scored a joint league high of 22 goals from an xG of 15.8. Per game, Chelsea’s fixtures are averaging 3.2 goalss from an xG/90 of 2.6. They are used to outscoring their opponents with 2.2 goals per 90 compared to 1 against, from and xG/90 of 1.67 and xGA/90 of 0.93.

In recent weeks, however, Lampard’s previously regarded leaky defence have most certainly tightened up and have gone from conceding an xGA/90 of 1.8 in their first 5 games, to an xGA/90 of just 0.2 in their recent 5 games — a colossal turnaround.

That Chelsea back-line will have to be on top form if they want to contain an exhilarating Leeds attack. The Premier League new-boys have taken to the top-flight like a fish to water, and are creating chances at an almost unprecedented rate for a newly promoted side. The Whites are 2nd in the league — 2 spots ahead of Chelsea — for xG/90 with 1.78.

They are also 3rd in the league standings for shots per 90 minutes (15.30) and 4th for shot creating actions per 90 minutes (23.80). It’s the conversion of chances to goals, however, that is proving an all too familiar problem for Bielsa’s side, with just 15 goals from an xG of 17.8 (-2.8) — the second largest difference in the league behind Sheffield United (-6.7). Chances may well be at a premium at Stamford Bridge, even for the likes of Leeds, and their clinical ability will prove pivotal.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — OVER 10 MATCH CORNERS @ 1.83 [5/6]: Whilst efficiency in front of goal cannot be guaranteed for either side, what is almost certain is that chances and shots will flow. Chelsea matches contain an average of 10.4 corners, whilst Leeds games average 11.5. With the two hugely positive and creative sides going toe-to-toe, it’s looking likely that corners will be plentiful.

Higher Risk Tip — OVER 3.5 MATCH GOALS @ 2.20 [6/5]: With two of the league’s most attacking sides and two previously wobbly back-lines, along with the revival of the Bielsa-Lampard rivalry all in the mixing pot, this game is sure to be a thriller. Both sides are averaging 3.2 goals per game, against comparably more reserved sides, so 90 minutes head-to-head on Saturday should prove a goal-fest.