Game Of The Day (2 Tips)

Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin

Germany Bundesliga - 19:30 KO

Friday night is Derby night in the Bundesliga, as the capital’s two rivals go head to head at the Olympiastadion.

Hertha go into Friday’s fixture with just 2 wins and 2 draws in 9 games, leaving them in 13th. Furthermore, Bruno Labbadia’s side have failed to win a single game at home this season, with their two wins away to Werder Bremen and Augsburg.

Their Berlin-based counterparts, FC Union, have mustered up 4 wins and 4 draws, leaving them propping up the European places in 6th. In just their second season in the German top-flight, Urs Fischer’s side have gone unbeaten in the league since their opening day defeat to Augsburg.

The two Berlin sides have only played each other 6 times, with 2 wins for either side, and 2 draws, making a result hard to predict. But the stats can give us a good idea of how the derby is likely to flow, and should help us work towards some decent odds.

Statistical Breakdown

As the home side, Hertha are slight favourites to win Friday’s game at 13/10, with Union at 2/1, and a draw at 5/2.

Hertha went through a rotten run of form in which they lost 4 games in a row from GW2 — GW5, but Labbadia has settled the storm somewhat in recent weeks, with his side losing just 1 of their last 4 (admittedly with 2 draws). Hertha’s wretched home form is yet to be addressed, however, and they are yet to win a game at the famous Olympiastadion this season. Once more, they are conceding, on average, 2.75 goals per game at home (from and xGA/90 of 1.50), and scoring just 1 (from an xG/90 of 1.43).

Hertha have scored in 78% of the matches this season (75% at home), and kept clean sheets in just 2 of their 9 Bundesliga games (22%) — neither of which were at home. Furthermore, they are conceding an average of 14.56 shots per 90 minutes , as well as 22.33 shot creating actions per 90 minutes — the 4th and 5th highest in the league.

The free scoring away side have found the back of the net in every Bundesliga game this season — including 4 past Mainz and 5 past Arminia — and have the 3rd highest xG/90 in the league — behind Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund — at 1.91. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game from an xG/90 of 1.87, whilst conceding an average of 1.22 from an xGA/90 of 0.93.

Union — like Hertha — have kept just 2 clean sheets this season, and are yet to shut out the opposition on their travels.Their star man, Max Kruse, has netted 6 times so far this season. The German forward is averaging 1.85 shots per match, totalling an xG/90 of 0.63.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS @ 1.91 [10/11]: Hertha are averaging 3.67 match goals from an xG of 3.06, whilst Union are averaging 3.56 from an xG of 2.79. Furthermore, both sides have recorded over 2.5 goals in 67% of their matches, whilst head-to-head, the Berlin derby has seen 17 goals in 6 games — an average of 2.83 goals per game.

Higher Risk Tip — HERTHA TO WIN & BTTS @ 5.00 [4/1]: Labbadia’s side are beginning to find their feet after a terrible start, and have only lost to Dortmund in the last 4 games. Both teams have scored in 75% of Hertha’s home games and 100% of Union’s away games, and the home side will be confident after their 4–0 win at home to Union back in May.

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