Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

UNION BERLIN v BORUSSIA M'GLADBACH

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA - 14:30 KO

The first of this weekend’s picks comes from the German capital, as the Bundesliga’s surprise package, Union Berlin, host Champions League-chasing Borussia Monchengladbach at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei.

The home side go into this afternoon’s fixture looking to bounce back from a poor run of form, having lost their last 2 league games against RB Leipzig and Augsburg. Previous to that, Urs Fisher’s side have been a revelation in just their 2nd ever season in the Bundesliga, losing just twice in 16 games and going as high in the league as 5th as recent as gameweek 16. The two recent defeats, however, have seen them drop to a still respectable 8th — just 2 points off Eintracht Frankfurt in the final Europa League spot.

Gladbach, in contrast to their afternoon’s hosts, are veterans of the Bundesliga, ever-present since the 2008/2009 season, and no lower than 9th since the 2011/2012. Under the astute management of the highly-rated Marco Rose, Gladbach are aiming to make the next step up from regular Europa League qualification, into the promised land of the Champions League. As it stands, they are a point off both Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg in 3rd and 4th respectively. They are, however, the form side in the division, with an incredible 4 wins in their last 5 — they are also unbeaten on the road since November.

Statistical Analysis

As the team with the lowest budget in the Bundesliga, Union Berlin’s success this season has been one of the fairytale stories in European football. Tasting defeat just twice in their opening 16 games, and pulling off incredible wins against Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen — not to forget another brilliant 1–1 draw with Bayern Munich.

Fischer’s side have approached every game with a fresh, attacking and fearless approach, averaging 1.83 goals per 90 from an xG/90 of 1.44. In total, their home games are averaging 3.44 goals per game (2.22 for and 1.22 against) from an xG per game of 2.64.

Der Eiserne (translated as ‘the Iron Ones’) are yet to draw a blank at their home ground this season, and have produced an xG per game above 1.0 in every game. 6 of their 9 home ties have produced over 2.5 goals, with draws to Munich, Augsburg and their 1–0 win against Leverkusen not making the cut.

Despite their 2 losses (both away from home) Union will be happy to be back in familiar surroundings, where they have lost just once this season, and have only lost once in 13 games in a run spanning back to last season.

Hoping to end that run, Gladbach will be making the trip to the capital looking to push into the top 4. Rose’s side have been incredible since the turn of the year, winning 4 of their 5 games (drawing the other) including a 3–2 win against Bayern and last weeks 4–2 win against Dortmund.

Gladbach’s away games are averaging a mouthwatering 4.25 goals per game (2.13 for and 2.12 against) from an xG of 3.79, and they have scored in all but one of their away games (the only blank being the opening day defeat at Dortmund) whilst also only keeping 1 away clean sheet (at Arminia Bielefeld).

Goals are something that can almost be guaranteed in Gladbach games. They are the joint 2nd highest scorers in the Bundesliga (level with Dortmund and Frankfurt on 35) and have produced these numbers from an overall xG of 31.1 — a few places down the table in 5th.

There have only been 3 previous recent meetings between the two sides, averaging exactly 3 goals per game and producing 1 win-a-piece with 1 draw to level it out.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS @ 8/11: With both sides averaging 1.94 goals per game separately, whilst also recording close to 3.5 total match goals per game (Union at 3.29 and Gladbach at exactly 3.5), the numbers are looking good for a 3+ goals game this afternoon. Furthermore, 67% of Union’s home games have produced over 2.5 goals, whilst 88% of Gladbach’s have also made the cut.

Higher Risk Tip — M'GLADBACH TO WIN & BTTS @ 3/1: The away side’s incredible form shows no signs of slowing down, and aforementioned wins against Dortmund and Bayern proves there's no implication of an easy run of fixtures. Union’s recent defeats may well have knocked the confidence of a side relatively inexperienced at this level, and a clash against Rose’s side may well add to the recent reality check. Gladbach’s lack of clean sheets does point, however, to the likelihood of Union grabbing a goal.