Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

ATLETICO MADRID V VALENCIA

SPAIN PRIMERA LIGA - 20:00 KO

Sunday’s GOTD pick takes us to Spain this afternoon, as table-topping Atletico host struggling Valencia at the Metropolitano Stadium.

The home side go into the gameweek looking to secure their first La Liga title since 2014, and their position puts them as strong favourites. As it stands, following Real Madrid’s win at Deportivo Alaves last night, Atletico sit top of the table with 44 points from 17 games — 4 points ahead of Real with 2 games in hand. 2 draws early on in the season has been followed by an incredible run in which El Atleti have won 13 out of 14 games, losing only away to their Madrid rivals. They have won all but 1 of their home games this season, scoring every time barring their 0–0 draw with Villarreal in gameweek 3.

Once considered the ‘best of the rest’ of Spanish football, Valencia’s recent downfall has been nothing short of catastrophic. regular European qualification has been swapped for 9th place last season, and a potential relegation scrap this season. Los Murciélagos currently sit in 14th, with just 4 wins, 8 draws an 20 points to their name. Worryingly, they are just 3 points ahead of Elche in the last relegation place, who have 2 games in hand. With just 1 win in their last 10 games, Javi Garcia’s side are looking desperate, and will not welcome a trip to the champions elect.

Statistical Analysis

Diego Simeone’s side have been typically Atleti this season, winning game after game through relentless organisation and star quality up-top.

Their home games are averaging 2.56 goals per game (2.34 for and an incredible 0.22 against) from an xG of 2.7, and whilst they have scored in all but 1 at the Metropolitano, they have only hit 3+ goals on 3 occasions. Only 33% of their home games have ended with over 2.5 goals, and only 22% have ended with both sides finding the net — producing clean sheets in 7 from 9.

Again considered typical of Simeone’s side, is there distinct lack of chance creation — at both ends — in relation to the rest of the top-sides. The league leaders, whilst 2nd for goals scored with 30, are down in 6th for xG/90, averaging just 1.33 — below obvious two plus Real Sociedad, Villarreal and Celta Vigo. Despite this, they find their goal difference way ahead of the chasing pack at +26. This is due to the typically outstanding defence, conceding just 7 goals, and averaging just 0.78 xGA/90 all season. They have only recorded an xGA over 1.00 on 4 occasions this season.

Whilst Valencia’s away games are producing a similar amount of goals (2.44 from an xG of 2.75) the split between for (1.11) and against (1.33) is what had lead to their worrying league position.

Javi Garcia’s side are conceding an average of 1.37 goals per game both home and away — not overly worrying at 8th from bottom — however, the rate and quality at which they concede chances is much more concerning. Their xGA/90 of 1.49 is the 2nd worst in the league, and their shot-creating actions against has them bottom, at 23.68 SCA against per 90. Valencia have kept just 3 clean sheets on the road this season, and have conceded twice in the other 6 games from 9 total.

Head to head fixtures have produced a mixed bag of results — in terms of goals scored anyway — with Atleti winning the 1st game this season 1–0 at La Mestalla. The favourites haven’t actually lost to their afternoon’s visitors since 2014, producing 7 wins and 5 draws in the process.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — ATLETICO MADRID TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET @ 1.83 [5/6]: Simeone’s side pride themselves on clean sheets, with 7/9 home games this season seeing visitors leave goalless. Valencia’s already struggling front-line are going to struggle to even create anything, and with an average of just 1.21 goals per 90, the task seems mammoth against potentially the best defensive side in the world.

Higher Risk Tip — ATLETICO TO WIN & UNDER 2.5 MATCH GOALS @ 3.20 [11/5]: With the clean sheet hopefully in the bag, Atleti’s attacking tactics are likely to remain solid, and not all that entertaining. Only 1/3 of their home games have produced 3+ goals, and they themselves have only hit that target on 4 occasions all season. If you were to ask me for a score I’d say 1–0, but its always good to have a little insurance space.