Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

AC MILAN V ATALANTA

ITALY SERIE A - 17:00 KO

With another domestic weekend dominated by the FA Cup 4th round, both of our GOTD pick’s will take us overseas to the more reliable European leagues. Todays’s pick of the fixtures comes from the fashion capital of the world, as AC Milan host Atalanta at the San Siro.

The home side go into this afternoon’s clash as title favorites, top of the league with 43 points from 18 games, and they’re defeat to Juventus at the start of the new year was their only loss all season — not to be rattled by such a result, Milan have won their last 2 games, following that defeat, without conceding. After Juve’s recent defeat to Inter, this season is turning out to be a battle of the Milan sides for the Scudetto, and one of the most fascinating title races for years.

Whilst not in the title challenge itself, Atalanta’s push for the Champions League places is looking more and more likely with each coming gameweek. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are 5th, with 33 points from 18 games, just 1 point behind both Roma and Napoli. An incredible post-Champions League qualifier run of form has seen them unbeaten in their last 9 league games, winning 5 and drawing 4. In fact, La Dea haven’t lost on their travels since their 4–1 defeat at Napoli in October — their only away defeat all season.

Previous fixtures have produced a mixed bag of results. last season’s corresponding fixture produced a 1–1 draw, with the reverse fixture seeing Atalanta come out 5–0 winners, but this AC Milan side are different this season, and have the nack of champions in the big games.

Statistical Analysis

As we have already mentioned, Milan’s loss to Juve was their only loss of the season so far, an incredible season which as seen them win 13 of 18 games, scoring 39 and conceding just 19 in the process.

Their games at the San Siro are offering up an average of 3.56 total match goals per game (2.22 for and 1.34 against) from an xG per game of 3.49. Pioli’s side have scored in every league game this season, averaging 2.11 goals per 90 minutes — the 4th highest in the league. Their 3 main creativity metrics, however, paint a picture of a side potentially outperforming their average performances.

Pioli’s side are recording an average xA/90 of just 1.21, 6th in the league and 0.23 behind this afternoon’s opponents. Additionally, they are behind Napoli, Atalanta, Juve and Inter for shots on target per 90 (14.61) and shot-creating actions per 90 (24.56), again suggesting some clinical finishing from a distinct lack of chance creation compared to their title-chasing rivals.

Whilst below their hosts in the only stat that matters: points, Atalanta are recording attacking numbers that put them up there with the best in the league, at least for entertainment value anyway. Identically to AC Milan, their away trips are averaging 3.56 goals per game (2.11 for and 1.44 against) from an xG per game of 3.10.

Gasperini’s side are in the top 3 for goals per 90 (2.28), non-penalty xG/90 (1.89), shots on target per 90 (5.94), passes into the penalty area per 90 (14.3) and shot creating actions per 90 (27.78). Their form post-Champions League group stages has been nothing short of phenomenal and has also seen them score freely against the likes of Sassuolo, Fiorentina and Roma.

They have struggled to transform those performances into results against the absolute elite of Serie A however, producing an xG of just 1.1 in a 1–1 draw with Juve, and producing their only xG below 1 (0.8) at home to Inter. La Dea’s free-scoring, relentless output does seem to be dampened by the most organised and resolute of defences — of which AC Milan is one of the best.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — UNDER 3.5 MATCH GOALS @ 1.57 [8/15]: Whilst both sides undoubtedly have the attacking prowess to turn this game into a goal-fest, recent performances from both sides against similar quality outfits does indicate a much more controlled affair this afternoon. As we have just mentioned, Atalanta’s xG against Juve and Inter averaged at just 0.95 per game, and Milan’s recent xG recordings against Juve and Sassuolo averaged out at just 1.4 per game. Neither will want this game to spin out of control, expect the goals to reflect that.

Higher Risk Tip — MATCH RESULT - DRAW @ 3.80 [14/5]: Once again, expect both sides to try and keep the game in control as much as possible. A draw at home to one of the in-form sides in the league will see Milan hold their spot at the top, whatever Inter’s result at Udinese, whilst a point for Atalanta — away to the league leaders nonetheless — may well just take them into the European places on goal difference. Last season’s game produced a 1–1 draw in July, and I’m expecting the same this afternoon.