Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

ATALANTA V GENOA

ITALY SERIE A - 17:00 KO

Sunday’s pick of the fixtures comes from Bergamo, Italy, as Atalanta host Genoa at the Gewiss Stadium in Serie A’s 5pm kick-off.

The hosts go into this afternoon’s game on a brilliant run of form, with 4 wins in the last 5, and unbeaten in the last 7 — a run of form that has seen them rise to 6th in Serie A, level with Napoli (who play earlier today) on 31 points, and just 2 points behind 4th placed Juventus who play Inter Milan later tonight. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are the form team in the league at the moment, and it hasn’t been just against lower-league sides. They beat Roma 4–1 in December, and put 5 past Sassuolo at the start of the new year — a year in which they are 3 for 3 in the league.

The visitors this afternoon currently sit just above the relegation places in 17th. Genoa have recorded just 3 wins this season and are just 2 points above Torino. 2 of those 3 wins, however, have come in the last 5 games, as Genoa’s mini-revival hopes to carry some momentum — momentum which has also earned them a 1–1 draw at home to Lazio. Davide Ballardini’s side have struggled to build any sort of run of good results though, the only significant run being a 12 game winless streak, and are yet to record a win against anyone in the top 12.

Statistical Analysis

Gasperini’s Atalanta have been deservedly praised for their style of attacking play this season, and they have produced the numbers to back it up.

They are the 2nd highest scorers in the league this season with 40 goals (3 behind Inter), and have hit those numbers from a total xG of 32.1. At home, Atalanta’s games average 4.00 total match goals (2.75 for and 1.25 against) from an xG per game of 3.09. After a slight wobble at home in which they went 3 without a win, La Dea have now won all of their last 4 at the Gewiss Stadium, scoring 15 goals in the process (3.75 per game).

The goals are backed by chance creation metrics also up there with the league’s best. Atalanta are 3rd in the table for non-penalty xG/90 at 1.92 (behind Roma and Inter), and 2nd in the table for both shots on target per 90 (6.31) and shot creating actions per 90 (27.69) — both of which are bettered only by Napoli. They are also top of the table for passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes (14.2), and progressive passes per 90 minutes (49.1)

Ballardini’s Genoa side will be looking up at Atalanta with envy, having produced just 18 goals so far this season from an xG of just 15.6 — just below half Atalanta’s totals in both fields. Their away-days are averaging 2.38 total match goals (0.63 for and 1.75 against) from an xG per game of 2.32.

Last weekend’s 2–0 win at home to Bologna was just their 2nd clean sheet all season, and they had previously conceded in all of their last 13 games before that win. They have also only scored in 4 of their 8 away games, drawing blanks against Benevento, Udinese, Hellas Verona and Napoli.

Any hope of goals for Il Grifone will come in the form of 29-year old Mattia Destro, who has struggled to find consistent minutes this season, but usually finds the net when given a chance. The Italian has featured in 14 games this season, but has only started 7, racking up just 616 minutes. He is still Genoa’s top-scorer this season, however, with 6 goals, giving him an average of 0.88 goals per 90 — the 4th best ratio in Serie A.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — ATALANTA RACE TO 7 CORNERS @ 1.80 [4/5]: Atalanta will be expected to dominate the game from the offset, and create a hatful of chances as they usually do. They are averaging 9.5 corners per game, and with the aforementioned chance creation stats giving them plenty going forward, I’ll be expecting them to get to 7 corners during the game.

Higher Risk Tip — ATALANTA TO WIN & OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 2.30 [13/10]: Gasperini’s side should be cruising game, and have shown no mercy in the past when putting the likes of Roma and Sassuolo to the sword. Genoa, with Destro in decent form, may well grab a goal for themselves, but Atalanta will ultimately do to them what they do to most sides this season, and run away with it in the second half.