Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

STUTTGART V BORUSSIA M'GLADBACH

Germany Bundesliga - 17:30 KO

The first of this weekend’s GOTD's picks takes us to the Mercedes Benz Arena, for the Bundesliga’s Saturday evening showing in which Stuttgart host Borussia Monchengladbach.

The home side go into today’s game firmly planted in mid-table. Their 21 points from 15 games has them in 10th, level with Freiburg. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side have won just twice in their last 5 — somewhat typically inconsistent for a mid-table side — and have actually drawn 6 of their opening fixtures, the 4th most stalemates in the league. Last week’s 4–1 win at Augsburg brought relief to a side struggling to build any momentum, after 2 losses against Wolfsburg and RB Leipzig compounded the worst possible start to the new year.

Their visitors for the evening have had quite the opposite start to 2021. Monchengladbach posted back-to-back wins for just the 2nd time this season when they followed a 1–0 win at Arminia Bielefeld with an outstanding 3–2 comeback win at home to German giants Bayern Munich. Those 2 wins took the highly rated Marco Rose’s side to 7th, on 24 points — just 1 point off the European places. They also ended an uncomfortable spell for the visitors which saw them winless in 4, with draws against Freiburg, Hertha Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt followed by a 2–1 defeat at home to Hoffenheim.

Statistical Analysis

Stuttgart are quickly proving to be one of the most fascinating teams to try to make sense of in the Bundesliga this season — but not for the right reasons. Within the inconsistency of results is an incredible consistency of home and away success.

It reads as follows: At home, Stuttgart have played 7, won 0, drawn 4 and lost 3, gaining just 3 points from a possible 21. On their travels, however, they have played 8, won 5, drawn 2 and lost just 1, yielding 17 points from a possible 24. Matarazzo’s side are quite literally bottom of the home table and top of the away table, which is quite frankly ridiculous.

Their home games are, on average, producing 3.67 total match goals (1.5 for and 2.17 against) from an xG per game of 3.96. Whilst they have managed to score in all but one of their home fixtures (the 1–0 defeat to Leipzig), they have also conceded in every single one, and have regularly recorded an xGA/90 of over 2.0 (the highest, funnily enough, being 3.2 against Leipzig).

Rose’s exciting Gladbach side will be hoping to add to the misery at the Mercedes Benz Arena, and make it 3 wins in a row for the first time this season. Whilst their results have also been lacking in the consistency of a true European side, one thing that can be banked on is goals — at both ends.

Gladbach’s away days have produced, on average, a mouthwatering 4.28 total match goals (split perfectly with 2.14 for and 2.14 against) from an xG per game of 3.86. Both home and away, Rose’s side have more often than not been at the top of the Bundesliga billing for the highlights show, producing last week’s 3–2 win against Bayern, a 3–2 win at Mainz, a 4–1 win against Schalke, a 3–3 draw with Frankfurt and, even entertaining in defeat, losing 4–3 to Bayer Leverkusen.

86% of Gladbach’s away trips have produced over 2.5 goals, and only 2 have ended without both teams scoring. Their xG within each game again shows their ability to create strong chances. They recorded an xG above 2.0 in 4 of their 7 away games, and managed to score 2 goals and 3 goals in 2 of the games with an xG below 2.0 anyway.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — OVER 10 TOTAL CORNERS @ 2.30 (13/10): With both sides producing chances at an astounding rate, and regularly producing xG above 2.0, expect Saturday’s game to be chances galore. Stuttgart’s home games average a ludicrous 16.67 corners per game, and Gladbach’s away days average 11.71 per game, so just over evens on 10+ looks to be great value.

Higher Risk Tip — M'GLADBACH TO WIN & BTTS @ 3.60 (13/5): Once again, this looks to be great value as the high-value option. Stuttgart’s home form is miserable, and Gladbach’s away form is promising. Whilst losing at Leverkusen and Dortmund, they are yet to be beaten on their travels by a team below them in the table. Stuttgart, as always (almost — 83% of home games), will find the net, but a leaky defence conceding 2.17 goals per game at home will be sure to crack against one of the most exciting attacking sides outside the top 4.